I was struck by this quote in the NYTimes write up of the Whole Foods/Wild Oats merger
One reason that Whole Foods sees Trader Joe’s as a formidable rival is because the two grocers already serve many of the same higher-income consumers — the same customers who Wal-Mart has hoped to attract by adding organic foods.
Trader Joes is primarily a prepared foods store, not an organic or natural foods store. The Street sees the organic foods customer as the desirable “higher-income consumer” – people willing to pay more for things that are beautiful and easy. In other words, to the analysts, organic buyers are only contingently healthy/environmental shoppers, not necessarily so. Organic is just a symbol, another way of saying “luxury foods” shopper.
Maybe Wall Street is just cynical about these things. Unlike Another Boy, who wrote: “This is the moment when changing public opinion reaches a tipping point, and changing consumer behavior encourages retailers to change their own practices.”
I’m not sure if I’m convinced we’re at a tipping point – or that I would recognize one when I saw it. What would further democratize and necessitate a move towards organic and local foods?
The negative scenario is easy to imagine: I’m reasonably sure the recent E. coli scares have catalyzed demand for natural produce. Give us a few more mad American cows and everyone is going to want to know more about where their beef is sourced.
What will drive the positive scenario?

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